Export controls just became a revenue share. the us approved nvidia h200 sales to approved chinese…
export controls just became a revenue share. the us approved nvidia h200 sales to approved chinese buyers on oct 2, taking a 25% cut of revenue while still barring blackwell and rubin, per the october reports.
the new policy taxes access instead of denying it.
Context
Reuters reported on December 8, 2025 that the United States will allow Nvidia's H200 processors, its second-best AI chips, to be exported to China and collect a 25% fee on such sales, President Trump said. CNBC reported on January 14, 2026 that the administration cleared H200 sales with a 25% surcharge, and InsideTrade reported that the Bureau of Industry and Security would consider H200 export licenses case by case.
Coverage dated early October 2026 describes Nvidia in talks over license conditions for ByteDance purchases of H200 chips.
The 25% cut and the H200 match the sources, and a policy that takes a share of revenue is how the reports describe the fee. The pages read date the decision to December 2025 and January 2026, not October 2, so 'approved on oct 2' is unsupported here, not refuted. It may refer to a later license step I did not find.
The note says Blackwell and Rubin remain barred. One page read says only the H200 has been licensed, which fits, but it is not an official statement. 'Export controls just became a revenue share' and 'taxes access instead of denying it' are the author's framing.
Related work
- US to allow Nvidia H200 chip shipments to China, Trump says (Reuters, December 8, 2025) ↗Report on the December 2025 announcement of H200 sales with a 25% fee.
- Trump clears way for Nvidia H200 sales to China, 25% surcharge (CNBC, January 14, 2026) ↗Report on the January 2026 clearance and the surcharge.
- BIS eases license requirements for Nvidia's H200 chip exports to China (InsideTrade, January 14, 2026) ↗Report on the case-by-case licensing approach.
Watch next
- Look for the official license record or Commerce notice from October. Check the statutory basis for the 25% fee.
Sources
- US to allow Nvidia H200 chip shipments to China, Trump says (Reuters, December 8, 2025)reuters.com
- Trump clears way for Nvidia H200 sales to China, 25% surcharge (CNBC, January 14, 2026)cnbc.com
- BIS eases license requirements for Nvidia's H200 chip exports to China (InsideTrade, January 14, 2026)insidetrade.com
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 9 October 2026 at 06:41 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
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