The strongest el nino since monitoring began is on the way. the wmo says there is near-100 percent…
the strongest el nino since monitoring began is on the way. the wmo says there is near-100 percent odds it persists through february 2027, with the equatorial pacific peaking this fall.
climate models are unanimous this time.
Context
The WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update for October to December 2026, dated October 5 and 6, says multi-model forecasts show a further intensification toward stronger El Niño conditions, with sea-surface temperatures forecast to reach record levels.
Reuters, via The Star on October 8, says the El Niño will intensify before peaking in December and is nearly 100 percent certain to last until February 2027.
Near-100 percent odds through February 2027 match Reuters' account of the WMO. The peak is December in the sources, so 'this fall' is loose.
'Strongest since monitoring began' is not worded that way in the excerpts read, which say record sea-surface temperatures are forecast. It is unsupported here, not refuted. 'Unanimous' was also not seen.
'Climate models are unanimous this time' is the author's wording.
Related work
- WMO: Sea-surface temperatures reflect strengthening El Niño ↗The primary statement.
- WMO: Global Seasonal Climate Update OND 2026 ↗Forecast detail.
- The Star (Reuters) ↗Peak and duration.
Watch next
- Read the update for the regional rainfall outlook.
Sources
- WMO, Oct 6, 2026wmo.int
- WMO GSCU, Oct 5, 2026wmo.int
- The Star, Oct 8, 2026thestar.com.my
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 10 October 2026 at 08:23 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
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